U.S. cheese exports set new record as overall U.S. dairy exports dip slightly in 2024
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Jerry Brown, USDEC |
ARLINGTON, VA – U.S. dairy exports slipped 0.4% in 2024 in milk solids equivalent (MSE) terms, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released Wednesday. Geographical and product-by-product performance was mixed against a backdrop of heightened competition and tight U.S. milk powder supplies.
“Despite the small decline, we saw many positive signs in the results that bode well for the future,” said Krysta Harden, president and CEO of the U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC). “U.S. suppliers posted record-high cheese exports, strengthened their presence across Latin America, lifted U.S. dairy export value, and demonstrated their commitment to global markets by persevering in the face of significant challenges.”
Those challenges included a third straight year of Chinese demand contraction, intensified competition from Oceania (as suppliers reworked their products mix to target markets outside of China), and reduced U.S. milk powder production that limited the U.S. presence in nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder (NFDM/SMP) markets.
High points
Cheese was the star of the show. U.S. cheese exports rose 17% to 508,808 MT, over 75,000 MT more than the previous record set in 2022. It was the first time cheese exports ever topped 500,000 MT in a year (and the first time they crossed the 1-billion lb. mark).
“With more than 450,000 MT of U.S. cheese production coming online between 2023 and 2026, U.S. cheese exports are ramping up at a perfect time,” said Harden. “The United States is already the No. 1 cheese supplier to the world, and we know we can strengthen our position in the years ahead.”
A key market for that cheese (as well as U.S. dairy ingredients) will be Latin America, where U.S. suppliers recorded their best year ever in 2024. U.S. dairy export volume gained across the region compared to 2023: Mexico (the top U.S. dairy customer) +7%, South America +6%, Central America and the Caribbean +8%.
The four markets combined accounted for more than 60,000 MT in new U.S. cheese export volume in 2024. Central America and the Caribbean were also responsible for about 30% of the increase in U.S. butterfat exports. South America was one of the U.S. bright spots in lactose. Mexico was the biggest contributor to gains in fluid milk exports. And South America remains the third largest U.S. export market for high-value, high-protein whey (WPC80+), with volume up 5% in 2024.
“We have a built-in geographic advantage in serving the region,” said Harden. “U.S. suppliers and USDEC have invested the time and resources to build trade relationships, cater to regional demands and prove our commitment to the market. And we continue to work hand-in-hand with stakeholders in the local industry to grow dairy consumption for the mutual benefit of dairy farmers and processors on all sides.”
In 2025, U.S. suppliers gain the added advantage of the Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) reaching full implementation.
Challenges
China’s reduced dairy import appetite directly and indirectly weighed on U.S. dairy exports in 2024. U.S. dairy shipments to China fell by 9% compared to the previous year. In addition, decreased Chinese purchasing heightened competition in third markets from suppliers like New Zealand looking to find alternative markets to China.
U.S. suppliers felt the effect in NFDM/SMP and lactose. U.S. lactose exports fell 9% in 2024 or by 39,304 MT. Almost all of that was due to China. U.S. lactose shipments to China dropped 27% (-35,993 MT).
The 2024 decline in U.S. NFDM/SMP exports had multiple causes, and one of them was increased competition from New Zealand. New Zealand channeled more raw milk into SMP production as Chinese whole milk powder (WMP) demand waned, successfully targeting U.S. NFDM/SMP markets like Southeast Asia. U.S. NFDM/SMP export volume fell 8% (-65,919 MT) in 2024.
“There will always be challenges to U.S. dairy exports. One of USDEC’s jobs is to facilitate trade and help U.S. suppliers overcome those challenges,” said Harden. “U.S. dairy’s success in international markets is testament to the ever-growing U.S. reputation as a reliable supplier of high-quality, nutritious dairy products.”
(For more on what USDEC did in 2024 to lay the groundwork for U.S. dairy export growth, click here for the two-page summary, “Growing U.S. dairy exports to nourish the world.”)
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Here are some key facts from the past year.
- U.S. dairy export volume fell 0.4% to 2.23 million MT MSE—in line with the annual average the previous four years. U.S. dairy export value rose 2% to $8.297 billion in 2024. It was second only to $9.655 billion in 2022.
- U.S. cheese exports grew 17% to an all-time high of 508,808 MT (the first time they tallied more than 1 billion lbs. in a year). U.S. suppliers set records in several key markets, including Mexico, Central America, South America and the Caribbean.
- Southeast Asia led a U.S. low-protein whey comeback after a down year in 2023. In 2024, total low-protein whey volume (after adjusting for product misclassified as high-protein whey) gained 7% to 523,926 MT. Shipments to Southeast Asia grew 10% to 129,316 MT. In addition, China held its own as the top U.S. low-protein whey market; USDEC estimates shipments to China increased 5% to nearly 220,000 after adjusting for misclassification of some shipments of high-protein whey.
- Butterfat also rebounded in 2024 after a down year in 2023. Anhydrous Milkfat (AMF) was responsible for the bulk of the increase, as U.S. AMF exports more than doubled to 13,754 MT. Shipments increased throughout the Americas but boomed to Canada (+109%, +3,582 MT) and the Dominican Republic (up exponentially, +1,539 MT). U.S. butter exports rose 7% to 31,042 MT.
- USDEC estimates U.S. WPC80+ exports slipped 4% to 72,646 MT in 2024. That’s a significant difference from Census numbers which show volume rising 16% to a record 88,000 (+12,000 MT). Anomalies in the data confirmed by conversations with exporters suggest about 15,000 MT of low-protein whey exported to China was counted as WPC80+. Even with the misclassification corrected, U.S. shipments to China still rose a healthy 9%. But exports fell to the two other top-three U.S. WPC80+ buyers: Japan (-17%) and Brazil (-6%).
- U.S. NFDM/SMP exports fell for the third straight year. Volume slipped 8% to 509,003 MT, with shipments down to most major markets, including the top two U.S. buyers: Mexico (-6%) and Southeast Asia (-9%). But U.S. suppliers did find some positives, including Saudi Arabia (+73%), Malaysia (+13%) and Japan (+320%).
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The U.S. Dairy Export Council is a non-profit, independent membership organization that represents the global trade interests of U.S. dairy producers, proprietary processors and cooperatives, ingredient suppliers and export traders. Its mission is to enhance U.S. global competitiveness and assist the U.S. industry to increase its global dairy ingredient sales and exports of U.S. dairy products. USDEC accomplishes this through programs in market development that build global demand for U.S. dairy products, resolve market access barriers and advance industry trade policy goals. USDEC is supported by staff across the United States and overseas in Mexico, South America, Asia, Middle East and Europe. The U.S. Dairy Export Council prohibits discrimination on the basis of age, disability, national origin, race, color, religion, creed, gender, sexual orientation, political beliefs, marital status, military status, and arrest or conviction record. www.usdec.org.