• Comprehensive reciprocal tariff plan unveiled; U.S. trading partners react to steel and aluminum tariff plan

• Bill seeks to move Food for Peace program to USDA

• Register now! USDEC annual meeting

• Letter urges Rollins support for Codex

• Vilsack named CEO of World Food Prize Foundation

• Nominate now! Excellence in Exports Awards

• USDEC 2025 activity list

• Market Summary: Strong farmgate milk prices in NZ, EU

• Chinese marriage registrations set record decline

• New players on GDT

• ILA set to vote on port contract

• USDEC welcomes Idaho State Department of Ag

• Big plans for McDonald’s in China

• Yum! posts mixed international performance

• Company news: Fonterra, Unilever, Feihe, Yili, Uckermärker Milch, FrieslandCampina

White House outlines reciprocal trade plan; U.S. trading partners react to announced steel and aluminum tariffs
At press time, the Trump Administration announced two more pieces of its U.S. trade plans: A Fair and Reciprocal Plan for “restoring fairness in U.S. trade relationships and countering non-reciprocal trading arrangements” and 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from all countries.

Reciprocal trade plan
The Fair and Reciprocal Plan looks to counter non-reciprocal trading arrangements by developing appropriate reciprocal tariffs for every U.S. trading partner. To determine the tariffs, the administration plans to examine several measures in all countries, including:

• Tariffs.
  
  
• Unfair taxes.
  
  
• Nontariff barriers and unfair or harmful acts, policies or practices, such as subsidies.
  
  
• Policies and practices that cause exchange rates to deviate from their market value, wage suppression, and other mercantilist policies that make U.S. businesses and workers less competitive.
  
  
• Other practices judged as providing an unfair limitation on market access or any structural impediment to fairy competition.

Under the plan, the Office of Management and Budget will assess the fiscal impacts of reports submitted by USTR, the Commerce Department and other agencies as outlined in the president’s Jan. 20 America First Trade Policy memo. Using those reports, which are due by April 1, the administration will determine the equivalent of a reciprocal tariff with regard to each partner.

Lack of reciprocity, the plan states, “is one source of our country’s large and persistent annual trade deficit in goods—closed markets abroad reduce U.S. exports and open markets at home result in significant imports.”

In its examples, the administration cites “the proliferation of non-reciprocal barriers in just the last few years” as the reason why the U.S. now runs a trade deficit in agriculture.

Metals tariffs
Separately, leaders from Canada, Mexico and the EU condemned the steel and aluminum tariff plan, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen saying the bloc would respond with “firm and proportionate countermeasures.”

The new metal tariffs are scheduled to enter into effect on March 12. The EU has reportedly prepared multiple lists of American goods to which it will apply retaliatory tariffs should U.S. tariff move forward; past EU retaliatory have typically not included dairy given the limited amount of U.S. dairy exports to the EU. That includes possibly re-enacting retaliation measures adopted during the first Trump Administration but suspended in 2021.

Other countries, including Australia and Japan, have requested exemptions from the new tariffs. At press time, apart from van der Leyen’s statement, no countries had yet published retaliatory tariff lists in response. (USDEC staff; White House; Bloomberg, 2/11/25; Reuters, 2/11/25)

Bill looks to move Food for Peace program to USDA
Reps. Tracey Mann (R-KS), Rick Crawford (R-AR), Dan Newhouse (R-WA), David Rouzer (R-NC), and House Agriculture Committee Chairman G.T. Thompson (R-PA), alongside Sens. Jerry Moran (R-KS) and John Hoeven (R-ND) introduced legislation this week that would move the Food for Peace program from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to USDA. As part of an effort to reduce federal spending, the administration has dramatically scaled back USAID staffing and frozen various aid programs the agency implements. Impacted programs include food aid, health programs and other humanitarian aid deployed in various areas around the world. (Click here for a link to a press release on the bill from Rep. Mann’s office.)

A shift from USAID to USDA could help preserve food aid programs and improve how purchasing decisions are made.

“Food for Peace is a critical program for American farmers and has a proven track record of successfully feeding people all over the world,” said Rep. Crawford. “USDA already runs two international food assistance programs that deal with in-kind food donations, Food for Progress and the McGovern-Dole Food for Education program. This makes USDA a natural home for Food for Peace.” 

Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Foods (RUTF), which incorporate milk powder, and WPC34 are both listed as “eligible commodities” under the Food for Peace program. USDEC and NMPF have both endorsed the bill.

Register now for USDEC Annual Meeting
Registration is now open for the USDEC Annual Membership Meeting April 7-9 at the Willard Hotel in Washington, D.C. Don’t miss this chance to connect with fellow members, engage in meaningful discussions, and gain valuable insights about the future of dairy and agriculture.

This year’s agenda is packed with policy, marketing and regulatory discussions for regions around the globe. Agriculture futurist Christophe Pelletier will present his keynote, “Food and the Future of Farming: A Look at the Dairy Industry.” Other highlights include biannual committee sessions and discussions on agricultural trade priorities, regulatory challenges, global markets and policy initiatives—all essential to furthering our members' interests.

Don’t wait! Register now at this link, or visit the annual meeting page on the USDEC website to view the preliminary agenda, register for the meeting and view other meeting resources as they become available. We encourage booking rooms as soon as possible, as the cherry blossom bloom makes early April a busy time in the region. We look forward to seeing you there!

Letter seeks USDA support on Codex
USDEC coordinated a letter from 34 members of the Food Industry Codex Coalition (FICC) to new USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins urging the department to keep Codex a core strategic focus and resource priority “as it champions prosperity and fairness for American agriculture.”

“More than ever, U.S. leadership and resolute engagement with Codex are needed to preserve and expand the export opportunities Codex has fostered, ensuring prosperity for American agriculture,” the letter states. “In the absence of U.S. engagement, some international stakeholders will use Codex to advance their ideological interests or regional trade agendas, threatening U.S. competitiveness and prosperity.”

The letter describes priorities FICC supports for the U.S. Codex program, including:

• Directing the development and implementation of a proactive, assertive U.S. Codex strategy that includes consultations with all relevant stakeholders and builds on existing U.S. Codex Office-initiated partnerships.
• Ensuring sufficient staff and resources are provided to the U.S. Codex strategy.
  
  
• Encouraging robust interagency engagement and support to recognize Codex as a strategic priority across the cabinet.
• Effectively harnessing diplomatic networks to support U.S. Codex strategy.
• Maintaining the autonomy of the U.S. Codex office.

“Codex will continue to have an increasingly positive impact on rural America as we see expanded demand for U.S. food and agriculture exports,” the letter states. “We count on your leadership and appreciate your attention to Codex as a priority for the Department going forward.”

FICC offered to meet with Secretary Rollins to discuss the issues further.

Vilsack named CEO of World Food Prize Foundation
Former USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack was named CEO of the World Food Prize Foundation. Vilsack, who served as USDEC president and CEO from 2017-2021, will focus on expanding the Foundation’s global network and further position it as a leader in addressing global food insecurity.

“The World Food Prize Foundation has a phenomenal and important history of advancing innovation to address global food security,” said Vilsack. Working with the Foundation’s president Mashal Husain, Vilsack said he looked forward “to forging new partnerships, helping bring to life new solutions in the fight against hunger and championing efforts to ensure a sustainable and equitable food system for future generations.”

One more month to nominate for USDEC’s inaugural Excellence in Exports Awards
The deadline to submit entries to the new USDEC Excellence in Exports (ExEx) Awards is March 15, less than a month from today. There are two award categories created to recognize and celebrate both the companies and individuals driving the U.S. dairy export industry forward:

• The Excellence in Exports Award honors a USDEC member company for exceptional leadership, innovation and export growth.
  
  
• The Excellence in Innovation Award recognizes an individual for groundbreaking contributions to the U.S. dairy export industry.

Nominate yourself, your team, or a colleague today! The awards ceremony will take place April 8 at the USDEC Annual Members Meeting at the Willard InterContinental Hotel in Washington, D.C. For more information about the ExEx Awards, including more about the criteria for each award category, please click here.

USDEC 2025 events
For your convenience, USDEC has compiled a chronological list of dairy export-related member events currently slated for 2025. This list is effective as of Feb. 7 and will evolve as new opportunities develop, funding is finalized or unexpected changes arise.

FEBRUARY

• Gulfood Tradeshow, Dubai, Feb. 17-21, 2025
• Southeast Asia U.S. Dairy Ingredients Sweet Snacks Innovation Workshop, Singapore, Feb. 25, 2025

MARCH

• USDA Agribusiness Trade Mission, Guatemala, March 3-6, 2025
• FoodEx Tradeshow, Tokyo, March 11-14, 2025
• Food Ingredients China (FIC), Shanghai, March 17-19, 2025
• Central America Supplier Mission, Guatemala, Costa Rica, Panama – March 16-25, 2025

APRIL

• USDEC Annual Membership Meeting, Washington, D.C., April 7-9, 2025
• Ingredients Advisory Group, Washington, D.C., April 9, 2025
• Cheese and Consumer Products Advisory Group, Washington D.C., April 9, 2025
• Food and Hotel Asia Tradeshow, Singapore, April 8-11, 2025

MAY

• Southeast Asia U.S. Dairy Proteins Healthy Active Aging Innovation Workshop, Singapore, May 7-8, 2025
• China Bakery Exhibition, Guangzhou, May 10, 2025
• USDA Agribusiness Trade Mission, Hong Kong, May 12-16, 2025
• China Animal Husbandry Expo (CAHE), Qingdao, May 19-21, 2025

JUNE

• USDA Agribusiness Trade Mission, Peru, June 9-12, 2025
• Seoul Food and Hotel Trade Show, Seoul, June 11-14, 2025

JULY

• USDA Agribusiness Trade Mission, Dominican Republic, July 13-16, 2025
• Expo IAlimentos, Colombia, July 30-31, 2025

AUGUST

• Food Ingredients South America, Brazil, Aug. 26-28, 2025

SEPTEMBER

• U.S. Dairy Supply and Innovation Seminar, Thailand, Sept. 15, 2025
• Food Ingredients Asia, Thailand, Sept. 17-19, 2025
• Espacio Food and Service, Chile, Sept. 30-Oct. 2, 2025

OCTOBER

• USDEC Sustainability Seminar, Singapore, Oct. 6-9, 2025
• Food Tech Summit & Expo, Mexico, Oct. 8-9, 2025
• IDF World Dairy Summit, Chile, Oct. 16-25

NOVEMBER

• USDA Agribusiness Trade Mission, Mexico, Nov. 3-6, 2025
• COP30, Brazil, Nov. 10-21, 2025

DECEMBER

• USDA Agribusiness Trade Mission, Cote D’Ivoire, Dec. 8-11, 2025

 

 

Farmgate milk prices continue to strengthen in NZ, pause growth in the EU
Forecast New Zealand milk payouts continue to strengthen on the back of healthy dairy commodity prices and steady demand, while EU gains slowed in January. After last week’s bullish Global Dairy Trade auction, NZX lifted its forecast milk price for the 2024/25 season to NZ$10.11/kgMS. Analysts at Westpac followed by raising the bank’s forecast from NZ$10.00/kgMS to NZ$10.30 and, with ongoing questions about U.S. and EU milk production, issued an optimistic initial forecast for the 2025/26 season at NZ$10.00/kgMS. To put that in perspective, only a handful of Kiwi processors have paid out more than NZ$9.00/kgMS for a season and no one has ever paid more than NZ$9.50/kgMS.

Westpac cited the lower New Zealand dollar, China’s recent demand rebound and the detrimental milk production impact of ongoing challenges with animal diseases in the U.S. and EU (H5N1 and bluetongue, respectively) as the reasons for the gains. It also questioned the resilience of China’s demand recovery and cautioned about rising New Zealand dairy farm input costs, warning that double-digit farmgate prices are likely to grow increasingly common in the coming years.

EU plateaus
In the EU, average farmgate milk prices rose for the seventh straight month in December, nearing a two-year high. But January is suggesting at least a pause in that string of gains, with initial estimates pointing to a 0.4% decline. That drop is primarily due to a correction in Polish prices which surged to record levels in December.

EU dairy commodity prices have been steady-to-rising. Butter may be down from the record heights of summer/fall 2024 but is well over historical averages. And while SMP has slid since the start of 2025, recent quotes still put it over US$2,600/MT.

China marriages hit record low amidst population crisis
A new report released by China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs revealed that the number of marriages in China plunged by one-fifth last year, despite widespread efforts among authorities to encourage young couples to marry and have children to combat a declining population. The number of marriage registrations fell to 6.1 million in 2024, according to the report, after a post-pandemic increase to nearly 7.7 million in 2023. The drop, which is the largest on record, has been attributed to economic challenges including high youth unemployment rates and an uncertain job market, the expense of getting married, and the high cost of childcare and education. The population of China dropped for a third consecutive year in 2024, despite a slight uptick in births. (Bloomberg, 2/10/25; Reuters, 2/10/25)

New players join GDT
Italian dairy processor Inalpi is joining the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) platform, offering AMF, buttermilk powder and WMP. Inalpi is headquartered in Moretta and operates a production facility in Peveragno. GDT did not specify a date on which the company would begin participating.

GDT also announced that existing auction participant Kerry Dairy Ireland would be expanding into new product categories, starting with auction 375 on March 4. Kerry will begin offering medium-heat SMP and butter.

East, Gulf Coast dockworkers’ contract clears latest ratification hurdle
Last Friday, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) Wage Scale Committee unanimously approved the new six-year contract negotiated with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) in January (see Global Dairy eBrief, 1/10/25). A ratification vote for the full ILA membership has been scheduled for Feb. 25.

A statement from the ILA and a long video from Harold Daggett, the group’s president, were posted on the ILA’s Facebook page. The new agreement, which Daggett called “the richest contract in our history,” is retroactive to Oct. 1, 2024 and extends until Sept. 30, 2030.

Welcome Idaho State Department of Agriculture
USDEC is happy to announce the latest new member to join the organization: the Idaho State Department of Agriculture (ISDA). ISDA is responsible for promoting and protecting the state’s agricultural industry, including dairy, which includes fostering domestic and international market development. Laura Johnson, bureau chief of the Market Development Division, will serve as USDEC director.

McDonald’s plans to open 1,000 new restaurants in China in 2025
China will remain a key focus for expansion of U.S. fast food chain McDonald’s in 2025. The company stated that while global same-store sales in Q4 2024 increased 0.4% YOY, same-store sales in China in Q4 grew 4.1% YOY. Of the 2,200 new restaurants the company plans to open in 2025, 1,000 are expected to open in China. The total number of McDonald’s restaurants in China was 6,820 as the end of 2024.

This year in China, McDonald’s plans to launch a Year of Value promotion that includes upgrading coupons and discounts while leveling up membership marketing to let consumers feel cost-effective throughout the entire year. McDonald's 2024 consolidated revenue was US$25.92 billion, up 2% year-over-year, while net income was US$8.22 billion, down 3% year-over-year. (USDEC China Office; Company reports)

Yum! Reports mixed international growth in 2024
In its Q4 and full-year 2024 results report, Kentucky-based Yum! Brands said revenues increased 7% in 2024 over the previous year, and net income dropped 7% for the same period. The company opened 4,535 new stores across more than 100 countries. In FY 2024, Yum’s KFC division saw positive system sales growth in China (6%), Latin America (15%), Africa (11%) and Thailand (6%), while systems sales declined in Asia (-5%), the Middle East (-2%). For the same period, the company’s Pizza Hut markets saw system sales grow in China (3%), stay even in Latin America and the Middle East, and dip in Asia (-3%).

In China, specifically, Yum China reported that total 2024 revenue reached US$11.3 billion, an increase of 5% YOY without currency exchange influence, and it had achieved eight consecutive quarters of same-store transaction growth. The total number of outlets in the country grew to 16,395 in 2024, including KFC, with 11,648 outlets and system sales growth of 6% YOY; K-coffee café, which grew to 700 outlets and increased sales roughly 30% YOY; and Pizza Hut, which reached 3,724 outlets in 2024 and posted a system sales increase of 6% YOY.

Looking ahead, Yum China said it will focus on opening more franchise stores, with roughly 40-50% of KFCs and 20-30% of franchised Pizza Huts, and an overall goal to reach 20,000 outlets in 2026. (USDEC China Office; Company reports)

Unilever to move ice cream operations from Bulgaria to Romania; plans to list de-merged ice cream unit in Amsterdam
Months after announcing the separation of its ice cream business from its other divisions, London-based consumer goods giant Unilever announced it would close its ice cream factory in Veliko Tarnovo, Bulgaria. The company said it will move operations from that site to other facilities including its Betty Ice factory in Suceava, Romania, which it says is significantly larger and more technologically advanced. The shift is expected to be complete by April of this year.

Separately, Unilever opted for Amsterdam over London or New York as the primary listing for its de-merged ice cream operation. (Reuters, 2/13/25; Romania Insider, 1/31/25)

Edeka to buy Uckermärker Milch
In a move to reinforce its supply chain resilience, Edeka, Germany’s largest supermarket chain, announced the acquisition of dairy manufacturer Uckermärker Milch. The independent dairy already supplies quark, butter and milk powder to Edeka, and the acquisition reflects the trend of retailers purchasing food production assets in an effort to gain more control over supply and pricing in an unpredictable market. The acquisition is expected to be complete on March 1, and the new entity will operate under the name EMP Milchof Prenzlau GmbH. (Top Agrar, 2/5/25; Nordkurier, 2/11/25)

Mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures
Chinese dairy manufacturers Feihe and Beijing Milkyway have joined together to form a new joint venture called Qiqihar Yinhe Dairy to manufacture milk beverages. Feihe will hold a 51% stake in the new unit. … As part of previously announced plans to separate its Animal Nutrition & Health business from the parent group, Dutch-Swiss company DSM-Firmenich announced the sale of its stake in Feed Enzymes Alliance to its equal partner Novonesis for €1.5 billion (about US$1.6 billion). The divesture is expected to be complete sometime this year. (Company reports; USDEC China office)

Company briefs
Fonterra Co-operative Group is spending NZ$22 million (about US$12 million) to expand cream production at its Waitoa, North Island, UHT operation. The project will add up to 30,000 MT of additional UHT cream capacity for foodservice, with a focus on China. … China’s Yili Group opened a tea beverage manufacturing line at its Huanggang, Hubei, dairy processing plant. The facility mainly makes yogurt, sterilized milk and milk beverages. The tea operation replaces one of the yogurt lines and is expected to generate sales of more than $25 million per year. … Netherlands-based FrieslandCampina Ingredients received approval for its milk fat globule membrane ingredient, Vivinal MFGM, for use in infant formulas and other food products in Thailand. The ingredient is a whey protein concentrate obtained from unpasteurized cheese whey. … Sweden-based dairy alternatives manufacturer Oatly said it will discontinue the building of a second processing plant in China because it has “determined that the production capabilities” at its existing manufacturing site in Ma’anshan “will be sufficient to support current customers and business growth.” … Moroccan dairy processor Copag-Jaouda rolled out what it says is Morocco’s first entirely homegrown line of plant-based milk alternatives under the name Nabatlé. (Company reports; USDEC China office; USDEC Middle East/North Africa office; Farmers Weekly, 2/13/25; Just Food, 2/12/25)

 

• USDEC thanks staff from Kenya’s Egerton University for sharing agricultural insights
• Research on African market shared with USDEC leadership team
• Leadership team meets with Kenya Association of Manufacturers
• USDA/FAS agricultural counselor Bret Tate meets with USDEC leadership
• Meet the judges for the inaugural USDEC Excellence in Exports Awards